It's Okay, You're Just A Grower !!LINK!!
What really determines whether you're a grower or a shower? We decided to ask How did that tiny little thing just up and become huge in a matter of seconds? Some guys' flaccid length is very similar to their erect length.
it's okay, you're just a grower
This week, we thought it would be appropriate to discuss how growers are preparing to plant in the midst of concerns over the COVID 19 Coronavirus. If you haven't yet, make sure you're subscribed to this podcast on your favorite app. That way you can take us with you in your truck, your combine, or on your next business trip and never miss an update from Jon.
What we've asked them to do is, firstly, wherever possible, use digital tools. If you're going to call on one of our customers, to call ahead and make sure that that's going to be okay. When you get on the farm, keep a social distance, don't do the things that we normally do, like shake hands. We're just really being conscientious about stuff like that.
Well, and imagine what it's going to look like 10 years from now. Mike, any bottlenecks out there? We're hearing from some folks, the bottleneck is in getting stuff up the river, or getting the trucking needed or the railroads needed, or just the the small molecules to make the bigger molecules. Any particular bottlenecks, that are starting to concern you?
What kind of resiliency are you looking at, in building in your company, not just for 2020, but for 2021, 2022? Are you starting to look at things that you're going to be doing differently? You mentioned some of the issues about sourcing material from someplace other than China. But what other actions are you taking for the next two, three, four, five years?
Lastly, I would also just say, I think the digital era in agricultural retail and agricultural in general, is just emerging. So whether it's tools to help our customers make agronomy decisions, or a tool that creates convenience by ordering or paying online, I think these tools are going to continue to mature. And in the future, they're going to become even more prevalent and more value-adding for our customers.
Well, look, I mean most importantly, I just want to thank, firstly the National Corn Growers Association. The work you guys do has a huge impact. And just like we're talking right now, making sure that agriculture is deemed an essential service, and working with the administration and policy makers on other important policy areas, from ethanol to a number of issues that impact farmers every day. I do want to thank NCGA, and Jon, the work that you and and all the grower leaders do, to enable that.
And for the farmers that every day are working hard feeding the planet, being as efficient as they can be, we just appreciate what they do. Again, it's just an honor to serve them. We're not sitting still, but we also know we don't have all the answers. We look forward to getting input from our customers and our non-customers, in terms of what can we be doing better to really serve their needs.
Agriculture is incredibly dynamic. It was dynamic before COVID 19, and it's probably even more dynamic now. So, we want to be agile, and we want to serve our customers. And again, I just want to thank them for what they do.
Setzer: Right? I have to. Yeah. Uh, I would say this how China manages their zero COVID policy as we move ahead, obviously we've seen Omicron, uh, you know, across the globe has really kind of created this huge surge in cases. And then we've seen things kind of mellow out and move on, you know, how that works in China. What we see happen after the, the Olympics is something I'm really going to be watching. You know, as we've already seen, it they had one positive case of Omicron an office building in Beijing last week and they locked down the office building. No one got to go home. So it'll be interesting to see just how they proceed and what that does to overall demand. Plus supply the ability to unload, um, ships at port. All of these things. So I, I, I think it probably just kind of exacerbates the, the transportation issue. Uh, but it's definitely something I'm, I'm watching.
Setzer: All of the above? I, I mean, I think that's one of the important things we have to to think about is, is the Brazilian or the south American growing region is up and down. You know what I mean? So we have a very widespread, um, sort of maturity sort of phase in, in growth that takes place. You know, you obviously you have Mato Groso and points to the north that started planting in September while Rio Grande del Sul, Argentina, you know, they just planted or are just wrapping up on planting. And, and so you have, um, some instances where we could see some of these rains really kind of save, or at least cap that damage that we've been seeing. Other areas, obviously it's, it's too little too late. They planted early this year because we thought the monsoonal moisture was going to kick in. And so you've seen that big reduction. And so the million dollar question becomes how much does the north offset of the south, because the north did have nearly ideal, um, growing conditions. And, and so here we sit, um, you know, most of the folks in the know that are down there that are working with folks down that way are still in that upper $1.37, $1.39. Now granted that's a heck of a lot lower than where we were at the $1.45 to $1.50, you know, sort of, uh, potential level that we were sitting at. So it is something that, that is definitely, we're gonna continue to watch it. What I find most intriguing right now is the Brazilian farmer, you know, taking after the, the us farmer to a certain extent in the sense that they sold too much last year, they were almost 60 percent sold by this point in the growing season last year only to watch the market surge up another dollar, $2. This year, they're below average on sales, and that's kind of causing some issues with the cash market. Now they've definitely shut off sales as the, the market started trade higher and these drought talk, the drought talk has come into play. And so that's influenced basis, It's brought some business back to the US. It's helped kind of support this thing, but we're only about 2% harvested. So we'll see here in another four or five weeks, we'll get a better feel for what's taking place. But so far you have zero and you have hero when it comes to, to yield reports out of, out of South America, out of Brazil, especially. So we'll see which one wins when we get to the end.
Swift: Well, you know what we're looking at right now, if you can wait, it's always cheaper in the back end right now, we had a full inverted market today where the March contract traded the highest price. And, uh, again, it, you would like to be able to go out and buy some of the cheaper grain in the future, but we know that these cycles are ending. Nobody has been able to buy grain at a cheaper price. So they're just having to come back and reload those feed bins again, with the highest price going there is
Setzer: Oh, well it could. I mean, I think at this point, yeah, the path of least resistance, or at least the risk is, is to the high side. We're in a full blown bull market here, right? We have been now for what a year, 14 months, 15 months. You know, and, and when we were trading at the low side, I, I can remember always telling my customers, okay, you have to realize that unknowns tend to always be bearish in this current market structure, right? Like market psychology always wins. Well, now we're in a bull market. And so unknowns are, are bullish. Does China step in? Does Russia attack Ukraine and reduce the amount of, of global corn stocks? Does the drought continue in Argentina and reduce production? You know, we're, we're not really of the mindset yet that it's like, okay, well, these are reasons that we're going to see supply increase or demand slow down. It's it's still the, the opposite. Um, you know, and, and so you, you look at it and you think, does it continue higher? And, and right now I would say the sign point to yes, but if you look the outside markets and you look at some of these other stories, if we don't see things line up, you know, I, I read earlier today, someone using their, their private estimate of 1.2 billion bushels, you know, of, of corn ending stocks versus the USDA at 1.54. You know, okay. If that is the truth, then we should be, uh, $6.50, $7.00 And heavily inverted. If it is truly 1.5 or 1.6, or 1.7. If we don't see China take in everything that they have purchased from a corn export standpoint, and we potentially see feed demand, maybe back off a skosh even though cattle on feed, not to steal Chris's numbers, doesn't show that's gonna happen. I mean, there's a lot of ways that we could back off, but until we know more about what's going to happen with Russia, Ukraine, the, the Brazilian crop and, and Chinese demand, we're going to stay supported at the very least, if not try to move higher. The open interest indicates money is flowing into commodities as well, and still be no better than to, to get in their way.
Setzer: I would say. Yeah, I think the biggest factors in the market right now is that a continued increase in Chinese demand. The fact that we did see such a reduction in production last summer in the Northern hemisphere, both in Russia and in, in the US and Canada. Um, and so we still kind of have that long tail, the short crop of, of 2021, that's, that's gonna hang over our heads. And then the Russian, Ukraine thing is huge. You can't have two of the top world exporters you know kind of running into a situation where there's a conflict and not have some sort of risk premium put into place. You know, traders remembered 2014. The last time we saw an actual full on, uh, conflict between both countries, wheat rallied 20 percent. Now a lot of things are different now than what they were then, but it's something that you, you maintain in the back of your mind. And until we feel better about what's taking place, whether Putin's just working to, to challenge the west and, and see how far he can go, or if he truly is intending on, you know, not only, uh, having the incursion actually going through with a full on invasion until we know more about that, you know, you really have to keep that risk premium in place, because what happens if you lose, you know, that large supply of, of, uh, world wheat, when we're already. I mean, we're already worried about food scarcity, and now we're talking about the potential of limiting exports out of two of the top exporters. Like I said, it's going to keep the market supported. And then obviously weather comes into play probably here in another couple, three months. 041b061a72